Integrated Plant Protection Center at Oregon State University


ONLINE IPM WEATHER DATA and DEGREE-DAYS

CURRENT CONDITIONS

note Disclaimer

9/17/98
Previous updates available for Aug. 31, Aug. 10, July 23, July 15, July 2, June 24, June 15, June 9, June 1 and May 26 update.
Temperatures have remained warm in W. Oregon, hot in S & E Oregon
Cumulative degree-days are now mostly 150-300+ DDs ahead of normal (base 50 F), except along the Eastern and Southern edges of the state, where it has not yet caught up despite recent warmer than normal temperatures. Extremes are at the Bonneville area, where they are 700 DDs ahead of normal. In the nearby Hood River Valley, Dee and Parkdale are more than 500 degree-days ahead of normal, versus 300 DDs ahead of normal in The Dalles. [see maps of Oregon Degree-days vs. Normals and N. Central Oregon Degree-days vs. Normals].

Check the Oregon Climate Service, The Weather Channel, their live satellite image to see what's coming next, or your favorite weather data source for the latest forecasts.

corvallis deg-day graph

madras deg-day graph

Cumulative Degree-Day (base 50 F) comparisons created using JAVA degree-day calculator

The updated graph shows that in Corvallis (as in most of W. Oregon), the degree-day accumulations were uncannily normal for June and July, but since late July it has been warm to hot, and DDs are ahead of historical averages and are now even with 1997. In Madras (Central Oregon), temperatures were also near normal for June, and have been warmer than normal in late July - early Sept., and they are now 300+ DDs warmer than both 1997 and the historical normals.

Individual Pest Model Predictions (selected)

note: forecasts are made using actual 5-day forecasts followed by historical normals

Be sure to visit Franz Niederholzer's Page for Hood River County Weather data and Model Predictions

Codling moth **** revised 9-17-98 ****

  • Medford - BIOFIX Apr 21; Second generation 99% egg hatch Sept 2. There is a possibility of a partial 3rd generation, because there were 2nd generation pupae by the end of August, and some of these did not enter diapause and will emerge as adults during mid-September.
  • Corvallis/Eugene - BIOFIX Apr 30; Second generation 75% egg hatch Sept 11. There is NOT a possibility of a partial 3rd generation this year.
  • Hood River (lower valley) - BIOFIX Apr 24; Second generation 75% egg hatch Aug 26, second generation 99% egg hatch Sept 18. There is NOT a possibility of a partial 3rd generation this year in Hood River.
  • Parkdale (upper Hood River valley) - BIOFIX May 8; [forecasts using Parkdale 1996 data]: Second generation 50% egg hatch Sept 9. Only 20% were expected to complete a second generation, the rest having gone into diapause, according to Dr. Helmut Riedl.

Pandemis leafroller **** revised 9-17-98 ****
note: this is a new implementation of the Brunner model, using a default BIOFIX of March 1
  • Hood River (lower valley) - first egg hatch (2nd gen.) Aug. 13, 50% egg hatch (2nd gen.) August 20, and 95% adult emergence August 30.
  • Parkdale (upper Hood River valley) - 50% moth catch (2nd flight) August 27, first egg hatch (2nd gen.) Sept 2, 50% egg hatch (2nd gen.) Sept 8, and 95% adult emergence predicted Sept 27
  • Corvallis - first egg hatch (2nd gen.) Aug. 23, 50% egg hatch (2nd gen.) August 29, and 95% adult emergence Sept. 9.
  • Medford - first egg hatch (2nd gen.) Aug. 10, 50% egg hatch (2nd gen.) August 14, and 95% adult emergence August 24.

Obliquebanded leafroller **** revised 9-17-98 ****
note: this is the Hazelnut version of the model -
has not tested in pears and does not require a BIOFIX (default of March 1 always used)
  • McMinnville - First catch in pheromone traps - 1st full generation Aug. 20, and first eggs laid 2nd gen. plus 25% catch in traps Aug. 26.
  • Hood River - peak 6th stage (large) larvae predicted Aug. 10, first catch in pheromone traps - 1st full generation Aug. 14, and first eggs laid 2nd gen. plus 25% catch in traps Aug. 20
  • Parkdale (upper Hood River valley) - Peak 6th stage (large) larvae Aug. 28, and first catch in pheromone traps - 1st full generation Sept. 4, and first eggs laid 2nd gen. plus 25% catch in traps Sept. 8.
  • Corvallis - Peak 6th stage (large) larvae Aug. 23, and first catch in pheromone traps - 1st full generation Aug. 29, and first eggs laid 2nd gen. plus 25% catch in traps Sept. 2

Filbertworm **** revised 9-17-98 ****
  • McMinnville - first moth emergence was predicted July 6, average first moth emergence July 8, first egglaying July 20, first egg hatch July 26, first larvae found in nuts July 28, peak moth emergence Aug. 6, peak egg laying Aug 17, and peak egg hatch Aug 27.
  • Forest Grove - Peak moth emergence Aug. 4, peak egg laying Aug 13, and peak egg hatch Aug 21.
  • Corvallis - first larvae found in nuts Aug. 4, peak moth emergence Aug. 13, peak egg laying Aug 27, and peak egg hatch Sept. 3.

Cabbage Looper **** revised 9-17-98 ****
**** note: a BIOFIX of July 15 was used to reflect the approximate peak emergence of loopers in the upper and middle Willamette Valley ****
In the Willamette valley, cabbage looper flight peaked July 31 and have been relatively high at most locations, indicating increased risk and need to check for worms in broccoli.
  • Corvallis - First pupae around Aug. 18, last large larvae around Aug 26, and first adults Sept. 2.
  • Salem - First pupae around Aug. 15, last large larvae around Aug 21, and first adults Aug. 30.

Disclaimer: No claims are made as to the correctness or appropriateness of this information for your particular needs. No specific pest control products are intended for endorsement or use. This responsibility rests solely with the people who interpret and implement information from this and other sources. Use all predictive information with caution - errors occur, and predictive models do not replace the need for proper monitoring in the field. If you observe conditions that differ substantially from model predictions, please contact us to determine if the model inputs were incorrect, if the model functioning or weather data are in error, or if the model is inappropriate for your conditions.

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This project funded in part by a grant from the USDA-Western Regional IPM program.

On-line since April 5, 1996
Last updated Sept 17, 1998
Contact Len Coop at coopl@bcc.orst.edu if you have any questions about this information.