Integrated Plant Protection Center at Oregon State University


ONLINE IPM WEATHER DATA and DEGREE-DAYS

CURRENT CONDITIONS

note Disclaimer

8/10/98
Previous updates available for July 23, July 15, July 2, June 24, June 15, June 9, June 1 and May 26 update.
Temperatures have been warm in W. Oregon, hot in S & E Oregon
In W. Oregon, about May 31 to July 25, temperatures were almost exactly normal. Since then, we have been experiencing warmer than normal temperatures. We are now "warmer than normal" with regard to timing of pest developments. In Central Oregon (Madras), the hot temperatures have now "caught up" with historical average degree-day accumulations. In far Eastern and Southeastern Oregon, degree-days remain behind the normals [see map of Oregon Degree-days vs. Normals].

In the Willamette valley, both cabbage loopers and black cutworms have begun to level off after reaching record high numbers in pheromone traps within the past few weeks, indicating increased risk and need to check for worms in broccoli and corn fields. Counts of bertha armyworm have been zero since early June, and corn earworm has been near zero so far. Corn earworm has been reported in the Southern Willamette Valley, however. Send in any reports from other regions and crops of pest developments to me at coopl@bcc.orst.edu. Check the Oregon Climate Service, The Weather Channel, or your favorite weather data source for the latest forecasts.

corvallis deg-day graph

madras deg-day graph

Cumulative Degree-Day (base 50 F) comparisons created using JAVA degree-day calculator

The updated graph shows that in Corvallis (as in most of W. Oregon), the degree-day accumulations were uncannily normal for June and July, but since late July it has been warm to hot, and DDs have caught up with historical averages and with 1997 (which had a warm May). In Madras (Central Oregon), temperatures were also near normal for June, and have been warmer than normal in late July - Early Aug., and DDs have now caught up with both 1997 and the historical normals.

Individual Pest Model Predictions (selected)

note: forecasts are made using actual 5-day forecasts followed by historical normals

Be sure to visit Franz Niederholzer's Page for Hood River County Weather data and Model Predictions

Codling moth **** revised 8-10-98 ****

  • Medford - BIOFIX Apr 21; 3% egg hatch was predicted June 1; 20% egg hatch June 9; 50% egg hatch June 19, 75% egg hatch June 28, 95% egg hatch July 8, second generation 5% adult emergence July 17, second generation 7% egg hatch July 27, second generation 30% egg hatch Aug 4, second generation 50% egg hatch predicted on Aug 10, and second generation 75% egg hatch predicted on Aug 17.
  • Corvallis/Eugene - BIOFIX Apr 30; 3% egg hatch was predicted June 9; 20% egg hatch June 21, 50% egg hatch July 2, 75% egg hatch July 10, 95% egg hatch July 21, second generation 5% adult emergence July 31, second generation 7% egg hatch predicted on August 13, second generation 30% egg hatch predicted on Aug 26, and second generation 50% egg hatch predicted on Sept 3.
  • Hood River (lower valley) - BIOFIX Apr 24; 3% egg hatch predicted on May 31; 20% egg hatch June 9, 50% egg hatch June 20, 75% egg hatch June 29, 95% egg hatch July 10, next generation 5% adult emergence July 21, second generation 7% egg hatch July 31, second generation 30% egg hatch predicted on Aug 10, and second generation 50% egg hatch predicted on Aug 16.
  • Parkdale (upper Hood River valley) - BIOFIX May 8; 3% egg hatch predicted on June 20; 20% egg hatch June 30, 50% egg hatch July 8, 75% egg hatch June 16, [forecasts using Parkdale 1996 data]: 95% egg hatch July 26, next generation 5% adult emergence Aug. 4, second generation 7% egg hatch predicted on August 20, second generation 30% egg hatch predicted on Sept 2, and second generation 50% egg hatch predicted on Sept 14.

Pandemis leafroller **** revised 8-10-98 ****
note: this is a new implementation of the Brunner model, using a default BIOFIX of March 1
  • Hood River (lower valley) - first moth catch in pheromone traps was predicted May 31, first egg hatch June 17, 50% egg hatch June 20, 95% moth emergence June 24, first moth catch (2nd flight) July 25, 50% moth emergence (2nd flight) predicted Aug. 10, first egg hatch (2nd gen.) predicted Aug. 14, and 50% egg hatch (2nd gen.) predicted August 20
  • Parkdale (upper Hood River valley) - first moth catch in pheromone traps was predicted June 12, first egg hatch July 1, 50% egg hatch July 4, 95% moth emergence July 8, first moth catch (2nd flight) predicted August 8, and 50% moth catch (2nd flight) predicted August 27
  • Corvallis - first moth catch in pheromone traps was predicted June 2, first egg hatch June 21, 50% egg hatch June 24, 95% moth emergence June 29, first moth catch (2nd flight) July 30, 50% moth emergence (2nd flight) predicted Aug. 18, and first egg hatch (2nd gen.) predicted Aug. 22
  • Medford - first moth catch in pheromone traps was predicted June 1, first egg hatch June 17, 50% egg hatch June 20, 95% moth emergence June 23, first moth catch (2nd flight) July 22, 50% moth emergence (2nd flight) predicted Aug. 6, first egg hatch (2nd gen.) predicted Aug. 10, and 50% egg hatch (2nd gen.) predicted August 15

Obliquebanded leafroller **** revised 8-10-98 ****
note: this is the Hazelnut version of the model -
has not tested in pears and does not require a BIOFIX (default of March 1 always used)
  • McMinnville - 5% moth catch in pheromone traps was predicted June 7, first egglaying June 14, peak egg laying July 2, peak egg hatch July 15, peak small larvae predicted July 28, peak 6th stage (large) larvae predicted Aug. 15, first catch in pheromone traps - 1st generation predicted Aug. 21, and first eggs laid 2nd gen. plus 25% catch in traps predicted Aug. 26
  • Hood River - 5% moth catch in pheromone traps was predicted June 7, first egglaying June 13, 50% catch in pheromone traps June 23, peak egg laying and 80% catch in pheromone traps June 29, peak egg hatch July 12, peak small larvae predicted July 25, peak 6th stage (large) larvae predicted Aug. 10, first catch in pheromone traps - 1st generation predicted Aug. 15, and first eggs laid 2nd gen. plus 25% catch in traps predicted Aug. 20
  • Parkdale (upper Hood River valley) - 5% moth catch in pheromone traps was predicted June 20, first egglaying June 29, 50% catch in pheromone traps July 7, peak egg laying and 80% catch in pheromone traps July 20, peak egg hatch July 23, peak small larvae predicted Aug. 5, peak 6th stage (large) larvae predicted Aug. 25, and first catch in pheromone traps - 1st generation predicted Sept. 1
  • Corvallis - 5% moth catch in pheromone traps was predicted June 12, first egglaying June 21, peak egg laying and 80% catch in pheromone traps July 7, peak egg hatch July 20, peak small larvae August 3, peak 6th stage (large) larvae predicted Aug. 23, and first catch in pheromone traps - 1st generation predicted Aug. 30

Filbertworm **** revised 8-10-98 ****
  • McMinnville - first moth emergence was predicted July 6, average first moth emergence July 8, first egglaying July 20, first egg hatch July 26, first larvae found in nuts July 28, peak moth emergence Aug. 6, and approximate peak egg laying predicted Aug 18
  • Forest Grove - first moth emergence was predicted July 1, average first moth emergence July 4, first eggs predicted July 17, first egg hatch July 23, first larvae found in nuts July 27, peak moth emergence Aug. 3, and approximate peak egg laying predicted Aug 13
  • Corvallis - first moth emergence was predicted July 11, average first moth emergence July 14, first eggs predicted July 25, and first egg hatch predicted Aug. 2, first larvae found in nuts Aug. 4, peak moth emergence Aug. 13, and approximate peak egg laying predicted Aug 27

Strawberry root weevil **** revised 8-10-98 ****
  • Corvallis - Currently egg hatch completed, peak adult emergence was predicted June 19, peak egglaying July 7, and peak egg hatch July 21
  • Madras - Currently egg hatch completed, peak adult emergence was predicted June 29, peak egglaying July 12, and peak egg hatch July 23

San Jose scale **** revised 8-10-98 ****
**** note: the default BIOFIX of March 15 was confirmed as adequate for the Northern Willamette valley ****
  • Corvallis - First crawlers are normally expected the first week in June, this year predicted on June 15, average time of crawler treatment July 8, first second stage nymphs July 13, first pupae July 26, first male catch next generation predicted July 29, first mating next generation July 31, and first crawlers second generation predicted Aug. 23
  • Salem - First crawlers were predicted on June 11, average time of crawler treatment predicted July 4, first second stage nymphs predicted July 8, first pupae July 21, and first male catch next generation July 26, first mating next generation July 26, and first crawlers second generation predicted Aug. 16

Disclaimer: No claims are made as to the correctness or appropriateness of this information for your particular needs. No specific pest control products are intended for endorsement or use. This responsibility rests solely with the people who interpret and implement information from this and other sources. Use all predictive information with caution - errors occur, and predictive models do not replace the need for proper monitoring in the field. If you observe conditions that differ substantially from model predictions, please contact us to determine if the model inputs were incorrect, if the model functioning or weather data are in error, or if the model is inappropriate for your conditions.

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This project funded in part by a grant from the USDA-Western Regional IPM program.

On-line since April 5, 1996
Last updated Aug 10, 1998
Contact Len Coop at coopl@bcc.orst.edu if you have any questions about this information.